Sunday, October 31, 2010

Why Republicans Won't Win On Tuesday

The generals are always fighting the last war, as the saying goes, and the pollsters are polling the 2008 electorate.
There are two problems with this, one demographic, and one technological.

Demographically, there are a significant number of younger voters this cycle, ones who registered for the first time in 2008. Many of them may have moved,  many of them may have not participated in the run-up to this election (more about this in part two) but they were sensitized to politics through both the party primary contests of 2007&2008, and then the actual election that brought Obama to the White House with over three times the vote margin that Junior Bush had across both his (s)elections.
The vast majority of this cohort were Obama voters. They're still Obama "monitors." And most of them are still registered.

Second, 2008 was the first presidential election since the cell phone became widely used as the primary or only phone for a large number (majority?) of Americans, and moreso among voters. Even though a huge number of voter registrations were processed nationwide, only the new ones got changes in phone numbers to cell phone numbers, if they put the number down at all. Remember, phone number is not required on registrations in most states, just encouraged. And people who still have home land-lines as well as cell phones usually put down the land-line as their phone number on legal docs.

What this means is that this election cycle is the first cycle where the landline population is ignoring their home phones because all their friends, family and co-workers have their cell numbers, which aren't on the voter reg.
Meanwhile, cell-only phone owners, even if they gave their numbers on their registration, usually ignore numbers they don't recognize or that their phone's phone book doesn't match to a name.
And while robo-calls are out there, and phone banks are burning up the air, the calls are falling on deaf ears, because the robo-calls leave messages that are dumped, and the phone bankers, generally, leave no message at all, but just hang up after four rings, mark 'NoAnswer' on the call sheet and go to the next number.

Polling companies will claim they are taking this into account, but they can't, by definition. They may include a statistically significant number of the younger age bracket, but the quality of these will not match that of the politically aware, if not campaign-engaged, that are registered. Their polls will use younger voters who are hoping for a call, from anyone. Ones who can't or don't hide behind caller-id. Which, you and I know, is not even the average youth, much less the young Obama voter.

But on Tuesday, the energizer gap will have closed significantly by the close of the polls. Because these 2008 voters, living their lives behind caller-id and voicemail, will show up in sufficient numbers to seriously screw with the pollsters' numbers.

And John Boner will still be the limp dick he's always been.
(5:58:41 PM)(6:04:49 PM)

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Birthers, Up Close and Personal

[Got this in my In-Box late this afternoon]

To the 2008 California Electors:
 
You will recall that Alan Keyes and others brought a “Birther” lawsuit in November 2008, seeking to block the casting of your Electoral College votes.  We have had the privilege of representing you, President Obama, and Vice-President Biden in that litigation.  As we advised you last year, the case was dismissed by the Sacramento Superior Court on the grounds that the state court did not have jurisdiction over the qualifications of presidential candidates, which the Constitution commends to the Congress, and that the case was moot — plaintiffs failed to even attempt to obtain any order before you had completed voting and President Obama had been inaugurated.

Keyes and his cohorts appealed that judgment, and this week the Court of Appeal, Third Appellate District, affirmed the dismissal.  A copy of the court’s opinion, which will be published in the official reports, is attached.  As you will see, the opinion affirms the decision below on all grounds.  

 Keyes can attempt to get review of the decision by the California Supreme Court and, failing that, by the U.S. Supreme Court, but neither court is obliged to hear the case and it is unlikely either one would.  So we expect that this decision will be the final word on the matter as far as California state courts are concerned.  

Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions.

[Happy to send any readers copies of the attachment on request]

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

America is the Goose that Lays the Golden Eggs. "Let's Downsize It!"

(4:31:00 PM)

Businessmen are lousy in government for a lot of reasons, as I showed yesterday.
But wait. There's more reasons.

Ever met a business man who didn't want to grow his business? Not a successful one, no. He or she wants to do better than the other sales operations, get the better product to market faster, to be able to be bigger than any other people in the same business, maybe in the same area.

Businessmen are built to grow their kingdoms. It's how they know they're important. More important than the other businessman. Reagan grew government bigger by huge amounts. Hell, the largest civilian office building in government is the Ronald Reagan Building in DC.

Please square this with "I want to make it smaller" that they all claim during their campaigns for public office. It's crap when they say it, and they know it's crap. They want more territory, more people who need their OK to inhale or exhale, and, good Republican business people that they are, they will do ANYTHING to be on top. This includes rewriting the Constitution, handing out lobbyist checks on the floor of the House, handcuffing  or stomping opponents and their supporters. This includes going in the hole 4 trillion dollars to buy a second term (Bush Junior's tax cuts) or starting two wars to prove you're more important than your dad (same bozo.)

And they rarely want to learn the ropes. Because being good at business means you're good at everything. It's that ego that knows everything that keeps them from being willing to listen to anyone that's also elected to government. It's especially what makes them lousy legislators: no idea what working on a team is like. Just want to be 'Leader.'

Finally, businessmen seem to think that they are the golden goose that we should all respect and idolize, because they make the gold. But they've got it backwards. They're a dime a dozen, mostly.

But there's only one America. And it's the goose that lays the golden eggs. Whether the gold is long-term investments like sewer systems and clean air standards, or a standardized market for business to grow in, or the businesses it encourages.

America is the golden goose. And businessmen thinking they know how to run it are just like the butcher who cut open the goose in the story, to get all the golden eggs now. Dumb butcher. Dumb businessmen.
(4:58:28 PM)

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Being a business owner or corporate CEO is exactly the WRONG preparation for Government.

(6:15:06 PM)
What the hell makes businessmen, and this cycle, businesswomen, think that running a business is any qualification for working in government? And notice I said 'working in'. The idea that no 'ONE' is running the government seems to escape a good many people these days. Even progressives who think Obama was elected Good Witch of the North, complete with magic wand. But especially business people and (usually) the Republicans who are buying that 'run government like a business' load.

Look, it's called a democracy, a republican democracy, for a reason. We all get to vote. We all get to choose who represents us in doing the various functions of government that we find necessary but, usually, realize we have either no time to do, or don't know much about. Or both. Example: what do you know about shale field frakking? Yea, yea, you just got to get the baby's bottle made, what do you care about shale field frakking...Aren't you glad someone is trying to prevent it from releasing crude oil by-products into the water-tables of northeastern North America...oh, yea, you're in California. Who cares about eastern North America?

But here in California, two business women are trying to approach government like a business. First, by buying a major interest in the company, err, in government. And much to their surprise, there's more to it than putting money on the table. The buyer has to actually like you, like what else you bring to the table. And being good at business, which neither of them really were, ain't much of a qualification anyway.

See, you can't just fire the ones who disagree with you. I'm talking to you, Meg. The others get their positions the same way you're trying to. We voted for them. And if they disagree with you, well, tough. This was the great frustration of the Republicans in the nineties. They wanted to fire Clinton, and but they actually needed a cause. Electeds can't just fire other electeds in government because they don't like them. Especially when they've been, oh yes, elected.

Also, government's not there just for a financial profit. Certainly not your own. Truman said you could tell an honest politician by whether he was poorer when he left than he was when he entered the office. You especially don't get to arrange for $40Million golden parachutes. Ya hear that, Carly, ya tone-deaf dirty Q-tip? Did listening to all those HP board members you wiretapped make you tone-deaf?

In fact, government's not in it for the next quarter's returns. So you're in it for the long haul, over a horizon that's way past the end of your term in office. Kennedy spoke of reaching the moon by 'the end of the decade.' Jerry Brown looked thirty years down the road from his tenure in office. Guess what? We're there.

And a big piece of why we can see the horizon at all is because California politicians, especially Brown, saw clean air and clean water as important, and energy efficiencies and pollution reduction as the way to get there. So instead of the smog, and effluent, and multiple nuclear and coal-fire plants business people told us we had to have, Californians use less energy, and less manufacturing materials, than they did thirty years ago. And we can see the mountains from the coast, even with more than twice the cars that were here then. All with the same living standards as the rest of Americans.

Who are suffering, along with us, from the national disaster of letting people run the country like a business, people who claimed to be qualified because they had "run a business, and made payroll."

Frankly, compared to working in government, especially a democratic republic, that ain't shit.

More later, including 'comparing sociopaths.'
(6:37:29 PM) (6:46:51 PM)       

Monday, October 18, 2010

Random Monday: ToDos: Multitasking Sucks

Rounding the corner into the fourth quarter of 2010. Jesus, where does it go? Looking ,at what happened this year around the house and around the life, it takes my breath away. Yet the ToDo list seems as long as, if not longer than, ever. After a few of the things this year, like Mom getting better but Dad dying, and Magnolia expected to graduate at year-end, a lot of the ToDos have attained (or been assigned) entirely different positions on the list.

It's weird. There's a resignation over some things, and a renewed determination about others. The resignation comes somewhat from realizing that there's not as much time left as there was when I was twenty (no duh!), but also from the fact that I know those things were never as important as they were interesting, and important is the only game in town from here on out.

'Important' brings with it determination and, hopefully, focus. Daily, I find examples of getting things done, and often done well, just by doing them to the exclusion of everything else. I have remarked earlier but want to reiterate: Multi-tasking is crap. Sure, you get three things done in the time it should have taken to do...three things. But by intermingling them, none are done as well as any would have been, had it been done to the exlclusion of the others.

Sure, sometimes, it's not possible to deal with the screaming kid and the boiling pan separately. And anger at not being able to separate them is a hallmark of the mind of the self-important. When the world deals you cards and throws you a ball at the same time, well, just be glad you've got two hands.

But why plan to do several things at once? That's just stupid.

I have a hand-scrawled Post-It on the fridge at home, reminding me of this.
"Doing too many things, and None of them Well" is how it reads, punctuation, capitalization and all.
 
At least Dawn is out-growing her Post-It, "Hell Is Other People", a pensee from JPSartre.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

"Dinner At Eight, With San Pellegrino" (...sing it with me...)

If you remember the tune for these TV ads for the sparkling water, you'll understand. If you don't, well...here's a link to the jingle. (just press the > play button in the middle). Don't listen to the whole ad, just catch the 4 couplets of the jingle, to get the idea...then sing along:

Purveyor of hate
it's Carl Paladino.

Nothing but straight
for Carl Paladino

The natural state
of Carl Paladino

Is loud and irate
That's Carl Paladino

He cheats on his mate
That's Carl Paladino

She found out too late
About Carl Paladino

Run New York State?
Not Carl Paladino.

Don't take the bait.
Vote for Andrew Cuomo.

Not the best, but it'd be a fun radio spot. Stick the tune in the heads of the voters of New Yahk.

Friday, October 15, 2010

TeaBagger or American: Pick One.

In December of  2008, just before the Electoral College vote to confirm Obama as the next president, I received a package from WorldNetDaily.com. It was a list of 4,000 names, each of which had paid a princely sum ($19.95?) to sign the petition that warned Electors to do their Constitutional duty and vote against Obama, since he'd never shown his birth certificate, and wasn't born in America, and yadda yadda yadda.....I still have it somewhere, if you want to see it.

The Fedex guy who delivered it recognized the sender, and knew my politics. "What'd they send ya?" So I told him, and I showed him. "What are you gonna do with it?" he asked. And my answer was quick, and clear. "If they'd given a rat's ass about the Constitution at any point during the Bush Administration, I might listen to them," I said. "As it is, fuck 'em." He laughed. We shook hands. He drove off.

In the face of this election, the TeaBaggers, (including those 4,000 signers, I'm sure)  have been created out of the whole cloth of hatred for Democrats, but energized by the fact that Democrats actually did what the Constitution said, and elected the person who got the most votes (almost 10Million more than the old guy and the nutbag) and the most Electoral votes, because he was considered more qualified. And who happened to be half-white, instead of all-white.

The Teabaggers are the 18% of America that watch nothing but Fox, listen to nothing but the LimBeck voice of doom, and only read RedState and Freeper-rama. They are the ones that couldn't believe that America would actually elect someone based on their platform and qualifications than on their ability to withstand pain (McCain,) their lack of knowledge (Palin) or their lack of interest (Junior Bush.) At least they were WHITE. (And she's pretty hot in that black leather zipper fetish, and them red six-inch fuck-me pumps. Hoo-aah!)

So when I hear these TeaBaggers screaming about the deficit (90% of which was caused by Bush's tax cuts, two unpaid wars, and deregulation) or about the National Debt (90% of which was generated by the Reagan deficits, and the fiscal stupidity of both Bushs, father and son), and then demanding that "Government better keep its hands off Medicare", (while party Republicans know there's nothing they can cut that won't make voters screammmmmmmmmmm,) well, I just don't have any sympathy.

Because all these problems were created by the Republican 'principles' of tax cuts and deregulation, and all had far worse trend lines when Obama got elected than they do now.

If the Teabaggers had been screaming about this when Georgie suckered them into not one, but two unpaid wars, or when Republicans swindled them into going into debt so that the Bush family's friends could get their taxes cut in half, if any of this 18% had raised a ruckus then, I might listen to them now, when they say 'It's Not Racism' or they whine 'why do you keep blaming Bush?'

But as it is, fuck 'em.

Vote Democratic On November 2nd.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Two Pairs: Pattern Matching The News

(05:39:46 PM)
A couple of match-game matches came to my attention today.

First, counterpoint the story we've all heard about the Tennessee firefighters who came out to watch a home, and the homeowner's pets, go up in a blaze of libertarianism, first telling the owner he hadn't paid the vig..err..the monthly fee for fire protection, with the other end of the spectrum, a NYCity EMT who's been charged with official misconduct for not coming to the aid of a pregnant asthma victim who collapsed and died in the bakery where the EMT was waiting in line with her boyfriend.

Well, at least the EMT called 911. It's something.

Late addition: aren't those Chilean miners glad they're not in that county in Tennessee? "No, sorry, we can't bring him up. He didn't pay this month's rescue fee." "But I have it right here. Please. I miss my husband." "No, senora, you'll have to take it up with Payroll and HR, and they're both gone for the day."


The other match seemed to exemplify social tipping points, and which side of each drew the attention of the court. In 1958, the Supreme Court decided that Alabama didn't have any right to demand the NAACP's membership list. Hmmm...wonder why? Don't you? Alabama seemed to still be trying to drag the darkies back to the plantation. (Has much changed in the 52 years since? Just askin'.)

Last year, the supporters of California's Prop 8 (sponsored by 'Hate me some of them Gays' Mormons from Utah (?!) sued to keep their membership list secret. Perhaps because they want to be left undisturbed on their plantations, in their gated communities and their stadium-size mega-churches?

They lost.

Isn't it lucky for them that us liberals aren't into actual lynchings, setting on of dogs, or calling out the police? Imagine if the WeHoPD treated Prop 8 supporters the way the Selma PD treated the members of the local NAACP?
(06:00:45 PM) (6:04:49 PM)

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Court TV...Or Audio, Anyway..Now On, Every Friday

(9:47:11 PM)
A couple of Supreme Court cases have caught my attention.

The more important of the two is FCC v AT&T and CompTel, #09-1279, in which AT&T is claiming protection from requests made under the Freedom of Information Act, for records relating to, well, just about anything that happens in the company. AT&T is that part of FOIA "which exempts document disclosures in law enforcement records that would constitute an invasion of “personal privacy” ", according to this article  applies to AT&T because AT&T is...wait for it...a person !! The GOP continues to play the long con, and with the Roberts court dealing from the bottom of the cold deck the District court judges have been stacking since they were installed during Republican administrations, I don't have any doubts that AT&T and corporations across the world will win big on this ruling. Instead of the specific law in question, Roberts, Noni, Guido and Unka Thom will pull another Citizens U, addressing issues not in evidence and expanding rights that don't exist.

And they said 'penumbra' was nebulous.

This matters why? Because, as the conservative turnover of government services into private hands advances, this will assure that we, the dumb masses, the former citizens, have no right to find out what happens to the tax dollars, or fees, or whatever we end up paying are called, once they're collected by the private providers. Sure, the city of Bell is a cesspool of official corruption, but citizens found out what was going on, and pulled the threads that led to it unraveling. AT&T can't let that happen to them, and Roberts, et al, will make sure it doesn't.

The reason why you can't run a government like a business, at least not in the United States, is because you can't hang that sign that says "We Reserve The Right To Refuse Service To Anyone" in the lobby at the DMV. Or at the Social Security office, or at the VA. And the reason a CEO usually makes a lousy elected executive is because they've lost the skill of negotiating, of working with people who aren't beholden to them, who won't ask 'How High?' when told to jump. Much as Arnold would like, he can't fire a state senator, or the attorney general. Meg wouldn't be able to, either.

But if this case gets the fine fondling I expect it will, in the hands of Roberts, Alito, Scalia and Thomas, the debacles behind closed doors at the companies that will be providing your formerly-government services will be unknown to you...forever.

A sly note: why would this be reviewed by the Supremes when it went the company's way at the appellate level in the Third Circuit? If you pull up the PDF on that page (the link's under 'Documents', called 'Petition') you'll notice the 'Solicitor General, Counsel of Record' for the government is Elena Kagan, the Supreme Court's newest Supreme. As a participant in the case, she now has to recuse herself from its appeal. With an 8-justice panel, a tie affirms the Third Circuit's ruling in favor of the corporations. So the fearsome four-some of Scalia's Mighty Mafia won't have to cajole Tony Kennedy into joining in.

I don't know why they'll bother hearing arguments. Thomas won't ask any questions anyway. He never does. "...than to open your mouth and remove all doubt", I guess.

The other case of interest, and I suppose, for entertainment, is the Westboro Church case, Albert Snyder v. Fred Phelps (or 'how to make your family a tax-sheltered operation'), about the right of this family of "Christians" to picket at the burials of US servicemen, like my dad's at Arlington a couple of weeks ago. Their picketing includes signs claiming that 'God Hates Fags' and that our service personnel are dying because America allows homosexuality. Not "allows it in the military" or "allows it is schools". Just "allows it."

Their right to perform these pickets is what's at issue in the Supreme Court case that was argued yesterday. But the lunacy, stupidity and insanity of this position is what strikes me. Does this mean if we just expelled all homosexuals from America, we could then send our soldiers into battle knowing they could not be killed? A new policy of "MAME", 'Must Ask, Must Expel' would certainly cut down on Defense Dept. expenses, since armor and all defensive systems would become pointless. Send our soldiers into battle with boots, underwear, a gun and lots and lots of ammo. God'll keep 'em from harm.

Yea.

Think of the impression of Christianity this gives to those not familiar with its better works, and saner followers. Think of how all the soldiers of all the 'Christian' nations down through history must have died because there were homos in that nation's populace. It would seem to make hunting down homos the most important thing in the world. It would mean that the people who founded our nation, since a few soldiers died along the way to our independence, need to be held accountable for not writing 'and kill all the homos' into the Constitution.

I think the case should have been brought in a different way: Westboro is an insane asylum that is failing to protect the populace from its patients. It needs to be closed, and the inmates need to be interred at other, more competent institutions. Camarillo got closed out here during the Reagan governorship. Is Bellevue still available in New York?

(10:28:27 PM)(10:39:54 PM)

Back in the Saddle...

(10/6/10 5:38:28 PM)
I’ve been beating myself up for a few days for not writing in a few days, after I’d pledged to myself that I’d write every day.
For a change, I’m just going to start writing here. Welcome to Mister Kelley’s Wild Ride:

It struck me that I used to be able to recall a face and a name when I met a person again, regardless of timelag or context. But that was, what, thirty years ago? Nowadays, I’m lucky to realize I’ve met someone before, unless I’ve had to work with, or for, that person. Yet when I’m back with that person, and reminded of the where or when, the whole context drops in place, and I remember entire conversations, histories, etc. Apparently, my flat memory model has self-reorganized into a paged model, perhaps because of the volume of experience that now fills my head. (How many neurons are wasted on the dozens of ad jingles and TV themes I experienced in my childhood? Or that the latest brain science has discovered that neurons communicate not just through synaptic signalling but through actually twitching physically, actually nudging the neuron next to it.)  I pulled a shirt off the rack at home, to wear to a nice dinner, and where it came from never occurred to me. Yet when Dawn remarked that she’d bought it for me, that cue brought back the entire experience, the shop in Ventura, the smell of the shop and the location of the rack in the store. I could take you there right now. Fighting to make my brain work one way when it wants to work differently is a waste of time, now that I understand what it’s doing.

A side effect, or maybe just a related area, is that I still am looking forward to all the careers I was hoping to choose from, or at least try, when I was in high school. Comedian, mathematics teacher, paleontologist, outfielder for the Reds. This is not to be mistaken for immaturity. At least I hope not. Emotionally, I had to do a lot of growing after I stopped smoking and started growing up again. (The second-worst side effect of addiction is that you stop growing up the day the addiction kicks in. The worst side-effect is swirling down a toilet bowl of life, and trying to drag everyone you know down with you.) No, emotionally I’m mostly the grown-up I look like. But I still expect to get through this part ad then go on to a career in…see above. I think a lot of guys are stuck at their senior year in high school when it comes to self-image. Maybe that’s why guys still think women, younger women, will be attracted to them. Which can be pathetic to watch in even mild cases, much less the Trump or Hefner extravaganzas. Women don’t get off much easier. I think they get stuck around twenty-two, but that’s just my experience from the past.

A friend’s Facebook entry (one of her many today) remarked that one of the fastest ways to lose friends on Facebook is to be too focused. None of that here, eh? In fact, that may be why I’ve been a ‘net fan since about ’94, when I helped write a ‘B’ license domain request for a since-defunct company called Fibermux. That license became the most valuable asset they had when their parent company rolled them up and took all the paperwork back to Minnesota. I love disappearing down the rabbit hole, because it’s like living in the reference library of my brain’s various cubbyholes.

Running long…more on Thursday…
(10/6/10 6:02:15 PM)